据国家统计局近期公布的数据，2021年年末全国人口（包括31个省、自治区、直辖市和现役军人的人口，不包括居住在31个省、自治区、直辖市的港澳台居民和外籍人员）141260万人，比上年末增加48万人。全年出生人口1062万人，人口出生率为7.52‰；死亡人口1014万人，人口死亡率为7.18‰；人口自然增长率为0.34‰。

1949年以来人口自然增长率 数据来源：国家统计局

The Chinese mainland's total population reached about 1.41 billion at the end of 2021, an increase of 480,000 over 2020,the National Bureau of Statistics releasedthe data on Monday.The Chinese mainland saw a low number of newborns last year — 10.62 million, with a birthrate of 7.52 thousandths.Deaths numbered 10.14 million, or 7.18 thousandths.Natural population growth rate reached 0.34thousandths.

中国日报专访了南开大学经济学院人口与发展研究所教授、博士生导师原新，谈中国人口面临的挑战、未来趋势和应对措施，以下是部分内容摘编：

❶ 您如何评价最新的人口数据？

原：去年新出生1062万人，是新中国成立以来出生人口最少的一年。当死亡率稳定增长至每年1000万以上，而出生人数逐渐下降，这意味着中国正进入人口零增长阶段。在零值附近波动几年后，将进入稳定的、常态化的负增长。换句话说，中国的人口规模已经达到了峰值14.2亿左右。

The number of newborns last year — 10.62 million — is the lowest since the People's Republic of China was established. When deaths are stable at around 10 million per year and births continue to drop, it suggests that China is entering a zero population growth period.After staying at zero-growth for a few years, it will go into a stable, normalized negative growth. In other words, the Chinese populationhasreached its peakof about 1.42 billion.

1949年以来的人口演变数据来源：国家统计局，中国统计年鉴2021

❷您认为导致出生人口下降的原因是什么？

原：计划生育政策和经济社会快速发展共同促进生育率下降。

The family planning policy and the rapid social and economic development promoted the trend.

随着收入的增长，以及女性受教育和就业情况的改善，出生率自然走向下降。这和世界上所有国家的人口发展规律是一致的。

With the increases in income, education and employment, especially among women, the birthrate naturally moved downward. It conforms to the law of development in every country in the world.

实际上，生育率下降的趋势早在上个世纪七八十年代就已经出现，1992年以来生育率就一直保持在低水平。当人们受教育的时间更长，婚育年龄自然推迟。

The trend for a dropping fertility rate has manifested as early as 1970s to 1980s. Since 1992 the fertility rate has stayed at a low level.When there's a longer period of education in China, marriage is postponed along with childbirth.

随着经济的发展，人们生存的成本和养孩子的成本也在提高，中国家庭感到了更大压力。并且，中国家庭对孩子质量的需求高于对孩子数量的需求——他们倾向于集中有限的资源培养优秀的孩子。

With economic growth, the cost of living andcost of raising children are increasing. This brings more pressure on families. Moreover, families have weaker demand for a certain number of children and stronger demand for quality. They tend to centralize their limited resources to cultivate brilliant children.

❸中国面临的最严峻的人口相关挑战有哪些？

原：总结起来就是：生育意愿疲软，生育基数萎缩，生育行为消极。

The willingness to have children is weak. The fertility base is contracting. Reproductive behavior is negative.

中国的育龄妇女（15-49岁）人数大概在3.3亿，到2050年预计会下降到2.0-2.4亿。平均初婚年龄大概在26岁左右，平均初育年龄为28岁上下。生育二胎和三胎的年龄更长，这也提高了生育风险。

For example, the number of women of childbearing age from 15 to 49 is about 330 million and is expected to drop to 200 to 240 million by 2050. The average age for first marriage is 26, and first childbirth is about 28. Mothers of second or third children are much older, which increases risks in reproduction.

长寿和低生育率使得人口老龄化加重。随着老年人口数量的增加和劳动力数量的减少，人口结构将会改变，给社会发展带来挑战。

Longevity and a low fertility rate lead to an aging population. With the rise of elderly people and the decline of the labor force, the structure of the population will change. This will pose challenges in social development.

❹人口减少会给中国的社会经济发展造成什么影响？

原：对于这个问题我们不必过于悲观。人口是很重要，但它不能决定一个国家的兴衰。

We don't need to be overly pessimistic on this issue. Population is important, but it doesn't determine the rise or fall of a country.

影响会在二三十年以后显现，因为现在出生的孩子二十年后才会成长为劳动力。在中短期，我们仍然会继续享受前几代人快速增长带来的“人口红利”。

The impact will only manifest two decades later or more, because babies born today will grow into a labor force after20-30years. In the short and medium time frame, we will continue to enjoy the "demographic dividend" brought by earlier generations.

即使转为负增长，到2050年中国人口仍会保持在12-13亿的高位，也是一个非常大的规模。五年后，印度可能会取代中国成为世界第一大人口大国，但是中国也会是第二位。在很长的一段时间内，人口对经济社会的压力不会改变，庞大的人口和有限的资源之间的矛盾也不会改变。

Though it's turning toward negative growth, the Chinese population will still stand at around 1.2billion to 1.3 billion by 2050, which is a very large size. Five years later, India may replace China as the country with the largest population in the world, but China will remain a close second place. For a long time, the pressure of population on the economy and society will not change. The tension between the large population and limited resources will remain strong.

另外，即使劳动力人口会减少，到本世纪中叶仍会保持在7.2亿，比发达国家的数量要多很多。随着中国走向科技化、数字化和智能工业化，人们的就业压力仍然很大。人工智能和机器人会占据很多工作岗位。市场对劳动力素质的需求会高于数量的需求。

Even though the number of people of working age will decline, it will still stand at about 720 million by the middle of this century, which is much larger than developed countries. Employment pressure will still be strong, as China goes into a more technological, digital and intelligent industrial era. Artificial intelligence and robots will replace a lot of jobs. And the demand for human labor will focus on quality instead of number.

但是我们也应该看到，长期的低生育率会威胁国家安全。所以，必须警惕低生育率水平的长远人口风险。

But we should also see that long-term low fertilitymay threaten national security.We must be vigilant about the long-term risks of a low fertility rate.

❺可以采取哪些措施来应对现在的人口挑战？

原：我们应该问问年轻人在什么情况下他们才愿意生孩子，他们想要什么样的公共服务。另外，50%-70%的孩子都是由祖父母或外祖父母照顾的，公立托儿所会是一个很好的补充。

We need to ask young people in what condition they are willing to have a child, and what public services they want. As about 50 to 70 percent of children are cared for by their grandparents, public nurseries should be a good helper.

政策应该问需于民。许多省份通过延长产假来鼓励生育，但是产假越长，一位母亲回归职场的可能性越小。如果妻子失去了工作，一个家庭如何供养孩子呢？员工长期不工作，用人单位也会承担很大压力。这将导致女性求职困难。如果能在税收等方面给予用人单位一些优惠来降低他们的成本就更好了。

Policies should take people's needs and worries into consideration. Many provinceshave lengthened maternity leave to encourage reproduction. However, the longer the leave, the harder it is for a mother to return to the workplace. If a wife loses her job, how does a family raise children? Companies will also have more pressure to pay for workers that cannot work for a long time. As a result, it becomes more difficult for women to find a job. It would be great if preferential tax rates could be given to decrease the costs of employers.

More supporting policies that meet youngsters' demands and expectations are needed.

文章来源：中国日报双语新闻